The Afghanistan / Pakistan Theater:
Letter Between Friends: Response to NYT 6.2.2012 - Colonel Davis / Afghanistan + Pakistan
____________________________________________________________________________
Dear Vincent,
It looks like I really hit a sensitive spot with this article. I forwarded a link to my congressional delegation (Udall and Heinrich) with a note that the U.S. needs to stopping throwing money and lives down a rat hole. I don't know what info you have, but my limited inputs from those who have experienced a tour in Afghanistan back up Davis' observations. Unfortunately, the presidential hopefuls are too hung up on the "nationally important" issues of birth control and gay marriage. Makes one lean towards Ron Paul! Quite a few people I know are of the mind to not vote for any incumbent in the coming elections, and none of the candidates are worthy. The options don't look too promising.
On the MICC, the Military Industrial Congressional Complex, I recently read Feinstein's and Andrew's book, "The Shadow World, Inside the Global Arms Trade". Having worked in the MICC for over 40 years, I know there are honest, patriotic people serving our country in it. However, I have also seen the attitude: "If the U.S. government wants to piss away money on this dumb idea, it's our job to stand in the stream!" Davis' observations on FCS were right on. SAIC with Boeing was the System Integrator on FCS. I was fire walled out of the program because I was working on advanced survivability technology that was a candidate for employment on the combat vehicles. But it is clear (in hindsight) that FCS was being developed for a war that will not come, and ate up a lot of $$ that could have been used to buy MRAP vehicles and save lives.
On Iraq, I understood from our former VP Cheney and the neocons that the war was to be paid for from Iraqi oil revenues after we established a democracy in the country. (I have right wing friends who deny that that statement was ever made!) Now we have a situation that is evolving into a religious war between Sunis and Shias, and no $$ coming back to fund the expense of our "war of liberation".
With regards to Afghanistan, I find it hard to believe that anyone in Congress has read the history of the British and Russian defeats, or understands the tribal nature of that society. Certainly the present crop of GOP candidates for President don't appear to have done their homework. The U.S. keeps keeps backing a corrupt administration. Shades of Vietnam!
_________________________________________________
Response:
Well Dear friend, .... this time we truly were on the same page.
I was about to send you the same article , including the piece in the NYtimes that alerted me to
Colonel Davis.
If you haven't read the NYTimes piece-
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/06/world/asia/army-colonel-challenges-pentagons-afghanistan-claims.html?pagewanted=all
This mess in Afghanistan/ Pakistan has been a burr under my saddle for a very long time.
Ive had reams of Raw-intell that has been in direct conflict w/ Administration and Pentagon assessments , for years.
Additionally, my own analysis has been in direct opposition to these absurd Rosy pictures that the Admin / Pentagon continually
paints.
The origins of this mess really begin from the moment that the Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan.
WE really have to go back to that point, if not before, to fully comprehend this mess.
It begins with lies and stupidity . Lies and absurdity, layered on more lies and absurdity.
We are truly in what I call an inescapable Bull -Crap loop.
The only way out really ....is to begin from scratch.
Its not unlike a building going up but ...on wholly flawed soil tests and engineering.
WE have built a complex policy in both Afghanistan and Pakistan ...on false assumptions, lies and pure fantasy.
The truth of the matter is that- tragically,. more often than not, our Foreign policy is destructively myopic , lacking
serious thinking , long-term strategic planning, or -ethical codes worthy of our Republic.
And ..if you want to dispense w/ Ethics, Wisdom & idealism ....our policy is wholly lacking Smart Self- Interest
We neither do whats ,
Prescient & Strategically best long term
Ethical
Or -Economically Advantageous.
I guess i am making the argument that - our policy is more often than not, essentially - Retarded.
Here is a simple ? that is rarely if ever asked.
We have spent Hundreds upon Hundreds of billions in Iraq. +2 Trillion
Suspend the why or wherefores.
( I originally adamantly opposed the Iraq II War)
The reality is that regardless where one stood on this issue- prior to the invasion / occupation,
we have spent a massive amount of treasure, and suffered no insignificant casualties to
A. get rid of Saddam & lay the foundations for Representative Government
B. secure the country
C. rebuild its infrastructure.
The physical & psychological wounds that we've incurred are of themselves -immense, and will put a drain on our treasury for decades.
So
Why aren't the Iraqis paying ?
Why didn't we levy a tax on their oil revenues for x years?
If we are true to our own logic and justification for the war....I dont see an ethical conflict in this.
Admittedly ,
In the scheme of things ;...this obviously isnt the Fundamental issue.
Seizing / Securing Oil reserves. Levying taxes ....
The fundamentals go back to the lies, myopia....misc absurdities, that become the basis of
policies that are propagated ad-infinitude.
So far...this nonsense is only accelerating our GeoPolitical Decline.
One day though....something a bit more serious and -Lasting- is going to occur. as in ....extremists getting hold of
nuclear weapons , a Nuclear war between India & Pakistan, ..so on & so on.
The Bull-Crap loop will eventually & -inevitably, move beyond reinforcing and Feeding a corrupt and incompetent political / policy making-decision
Making loop
to - vaporizing a not insignificant % of the world's population, and Geography.
Once that happens...the business of POlicy predicated on lining various contractors pockets, and sustaining the careers of various politicians and policy makers,
is going to seem infinitely ...absurd. ....Tragic? We will have to create a new word.
To that, or the prevention there of, we all need to bow to Col. Davis and anyone else operating in the Bull-crap loop
willing to life , limb , and prosperity, and stand up for the simple Truth, and the values that our Republic was founded upon, and ...hopefully,
again, represent.
______________________________________________________
Follow Up:
Its interesting,
I have rarely met anyone elected to office , or working for Govt, Igos, ngos, ..including private industry, that i could point to as being a blatantly corrupt evil sob, intent on authoring Destructive polices or throwing Billions of US dollars away.
Most people that I meet are extremely professional, above board, Honorable, etc . , etc.
So ..something isnt adding up.
2+2 does not = the mountain of Bad policy that keeps piling up, with literally -hundreds of Billions wasted, plus the terrible casualties & collateral damage.
And if this calculation was not tragic enough ... we are screwing up in critically important immediate, short, and long term GeoPOlitical strategy, and- critically sensitive National security /
Global security matters.
Im a bit rushed, and no doubt you have no interest in reading several pages of analysis- of which you are likely all to aware of.
So Ill keep this Sweetly short.
On Afghanistan / Pakistan - a sound analysis never rested on sensitive or refined Intelligence .
The issues are blatantly obvious.
Only "Willful Blindness", organizational Dysfunction and corruption explains our policies disconnect w/ Reality.
On a strategic basis alone- the Bush II years were an unmitigated disaster on a scale and magnitude that is almost incomprehensible.
If you were to read our recent history in Fiction....it wouldn't be believable.
In my estimation there are just a handful of self-inflicted disasters that measure up in all of history.
And....in truth, the only way to recover from a multitude of screwups of this magnitude, is -serious Self Awareness , Soup to nuts reevaluation, Thoroughly reforming the
policy making apparatus- , Identifying Realistic Goals with perfect clarity , and following through with a long term Disciplined adherence to those Goals , including the
core principles that give structure to and support them.
Voila
Call it a Miracle .
We need a Miracle.
Thoughtful . Purposeful. Insightful. Disciplined. - Perspicacity.
I learned this from my Father .... ill spare you the story but
-Corruption is Natural. Its unavoidable. Its absurd to believe or attempt to rid ourselves of all corruption. Its like trying to get rid of Rats
Not going to Happen. So ..you adapt Work with it . At time ...strangely enough ...its actually of use.
That and perfection
WE are not going to get rid of corruption & Greed. Its embedded in the Human as much as anything.
We are not going to be perfect. ....another absurdity. Itll never happen.
But...we need to aim for that 80/20.
If we deviate slightly ..its not a game changer. Its not even a problem
But ...we must come to grips w/ a society that is simply getting it So profoundly wrong..so often.
..I am forever an optimist and a firm believer in the occasional and well timed miracle.
IN reality, aside from the miscalculation and prevention of nuclear war between states, and failing to prevent proliferation of WMD to rogue states , terrorists/ resistance / extremist -organizations
The Game really is Domestic.
Values. Education. Economy. Deficit. Energy. Sustainability. etc etc.
No matter how prescient our Foreign Policy/ security strategy- if we dont get our house in order , we will w/ 100 % certainty - go the way of every other
Empire that became bloated with corruption, Greed, ... Hubris.
OUr rise was mostly an Historical anomaly. An accident.
Our Decline will be anything but.
So much of what defines our polity is the tension between a missionary zeal to spread our values, our idea of ourselves as exceptional, and our
enterprising spirit which has always pushed us into Global markets, and a bizarre isolationism, and a reluctance to Empire.
We invade Iraq- twice. We occupy Iraq for more than a decade. The entire World's economy is dependent upon stable oil supplies,
but after all the Hundreds of Billions spent - lives wasted , what Truly do we have to show for it except
an empowered Iran, a chimera of Democracy in Iraq, ..a far less stable Middle E. ?
Not to mention, A middle E. not one inch closer to resolving the single most iimportant issue. -Israel.
Recall the Report on Arab Development ..i believe that was the name ..circa 2003
It stated three primary things were preventing the Arab world from Advancing Economically.
Women's role in society
Education
Authoritarianism
For the money we spent on misguided policies in the ME- we could have handed these things to the Arab world on a platter.
And so it goes.
I have Faith
& I am working at solutions.
Possibly dueling windmills w/ a wooden sword ..but - it is what it is.
Letter Between Friends: Response to NYT 6.2.2012 - Colonel Davis / Afghanistan + Pakistan
____________________________________________________________________________
Dear Vincent,
It looks like I really hit a sensitive spot with this article. I forwarded a link to my congressional delegation (Udall and Heinrich) with a note that the U.S. needs to stopping throwing money and lives down a rat hole. I don't know what info you have, but my limited inputs from those who have experienced a tour in Afghanistan back up Davis' observations. Unfortunately, the presidential hopefuls are too hung up on the "nationally important" issues of birth control and gay marriage. Makes one lean towards Ron Paul! Quite a few people I know are of the mind to not vote for any incumbent in the coming elections, and none of the candidates are worthy. The options don't look too promising.
On the MICC, the Military Industrial Congressional Complex, I recently read Feinstein's and Andrew's book, "The Shadow World, Inside the Global Arms Trade". Having worked in the MICC for over 40 years, I know there are honest, patriotic people serving our country in it. However, I have also seen the attitude: "If the U.S. government wants to piss away money on this dumb idea, it's our job to stand in the stream!" Davis' observations on FCS were right on. SAIC with Boeing was the System Integrator on FCS. I was fire walled out of the program because I was working on advanced survivability technology that was a candidate for employment on the combat vehicles. But it is clear (in hindsight) that FCS was being developed for a war that will not come, and ate up a lot of $$ that could have been used to buy MRAP vehicles and save lives.
On Iraq, I understood from our former VP Cheney and the neocons that the war was to be paid for from Iraqi oil revenues after we established a democracy in the country. (I have right wing friends who deny that that statement was ever made!) Now we have a situation that is evolving into a religious war between Sunis and Shias, and no $$ coming back to fund the expense of our "war of liberation".
With regards to Afghanistan, I find it hard to believe that anyone in Congress has read the history of the British and Russian defeats, or understands the tribal nature of that society. Certainly the present crop of GOP candidates for President don't appear to have done their homework. The U.S. keeps keeps backing a corrupt administration. Shades of Vietnam!
_________________________________________________
Response:
Well Dear friend, .... this time we truly were on the same page.
I was about to send you the same article , including the piece in the NYtimes that alerted me to
Colonel Davis.
If you haven't read the NYTimes piece-
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/06/world/asia/army-colonel-challenges-pentagons-afghanistan-claims.html?pagewanted=all
This mess in Afghanistan/ Pakistan has been a burr under my saddle for a very long time.
Ive had reams of Raw-intell that has been in direct conflict w/ Administration and Pentagon assessments , for years.
Additionally, my own analysis has been in direct opposition to these absurd Rosy pictures that the Admin / Pentagon continually
paints.
The origins of this mess really begin from the moment that the Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan.
WE really have to go back to that point, if not before, to fully comprehend this mess.
It begins with lies and stupidity . Lies and absurdity, layered on more lies and absurdity.
We are truly in what I call an inescapable Bull -Crap loop.
The only way out really ....is to begin from scratch.
Its not unlike a building going up but ...on wholly flawed soil tests and engineering.
WE have built a complex policy in both Afghanistan and Pakistan ...on false assumptions, lies and pure fantasy.
The truth of the matter is that- tragically,. more often than not, our Foreign policy is destructively myopic , lacking
serious thinking , long-term strategic planning, or -ethical codes worthy of our Republic.
And ..if you want to dispense w/ Ethics, Wisdom & idealism ....our policy is wholly lacking Smart Self- Interest
We neither do whats ,
Prescient & Strategically best long term
Ethical
Or -Economically Advantageous.
I guess i am making the argument that - our policy is more often than not, essentially - Retarded.
Here is a simple ? that is rarely if ever asked.
We have spent Hundreds upon Hundreds of billions in Iraq. +2 Trillion
Suspend the why or wherefores.
( I originally adamantly opposed the Iraq II War)
The reality is that regardless where one stood on this issue- prior to the invasion / occupation,
we have spent a massive amount of treasure, and suffered no insignificant casualties to
A. get rid of Saddam & lay the foundations for Representative Government
B. secure the country
C. rebuild its infrastructure.
The physical & psychological wounds that we've incurred are of themselves -immense, and will put a drain on our treasury for decades.
So
Why aren't the Iraqis paying ?
Why didn't we levy a tax on their oil revenues for x years?
If we are true to our own logic and justification for the war....I dont see an ethical conflict in this.
Admittedly ,
In the scheme of things ;...this obviously isnt the Fundamental issue.
Seizing / Securing Oil reserves. Levying taxes ....
The fundamentals go back to the lies, myopia....misc absurdities, that become the basis of
policies that are propagated ad-infinitude.
So far...this nonsense is only accelerating our GeoPolitical Decline.
One day though....something a bit more serious and -Lasting- is going to occur. as in ....extremists getting hold of
nuclear weapons , a Nuclear war between India & Pakistan, ..so on & so on.
The Bull-Crap loop will eventually & -inevitably, move beyond reinforcing and Feeding a corrupt and incompetent political / policy making-decision
Making loop
to - vaporizing a not insignificant % of the world's population, and Geography.
Once that happens...the business of POlicy predicated on lining various contractors pockets, and sustaining the careers of various politicians and policy makers,
is going to seem infinitely ...absurd. ....Tragic? We will have to create a new word.
To that, or the prevention there of, we all need to bow to Col. Davis and anyone else operating in the Bull-crap loop
willing to life , limb , and prosperity, and stand up for the simple Truth, and the values that our Republic was founded upon, and ...hopefully,
again, represent.
______________________________________________________
Follow Up:
Its interesting,
I have rarely met anyone elected to office , or working for Govt, Igos, ngos, ..including private industry, that i could point to as being a blatantly corrupt evil sob, intent on authoring Destructive polices or throwing Billions of US dollars away.
Most people that I meet are extremely professional, above board, Honorable, etc . , etc.
So ..something isnt adding up.
2+2 does not = the mountain of Bad policy that keeps piling up, with literally -hundreds of Billions wasted, plus the terrible casualties & collateral damage.
And if this calculation was not tragic enough ... we are screwing up in critically important immediate, short, and long term GeoPOlitical strategy, and- critically sensitive National security /
Global security matters.
Im a bit rushed, and no doubt you have no interest in reading several pages of analysis- of which you are likely all to aware of.
So Ill keep this Sweetly short.
On Afghanistan / Pakistan - a sound analysis never rested on sensitive or refined Intelligence .
The issues are blatantly obvious.
Only "Willful Blindness", organizational Dysfunction and corruption explains our policies disconnect w/ Reality.
On a strategic basis alone- the Bush II years were an unmitigated disaster on a scale and magnitude that is almost incomprehensible.
If you were to read our recent history in Fiction....it wouldn't be believable.
In my estimation there are just a handful of self-inflicted disasters that measure up in all of history.
And....in truth, the only way to recover from a multitude of screwups of this magnitude, is -serious Self Awareness , Soup to nuts reevaluation, Thoroughly reforming the
policy making apparatus- , Identifying Realistic Goals with perfect clarity , and following through with a long term Disciplined adherence to those Goals , including the
core principles that give structure to and support them.
Voila
Call it a Miracle .
We need a Miracle.
Thoughtful . Purposeful. Insightful. Disciplined. - Perspicacity.
I learned this from my Father .... ill spare you the story but
-Corruption is Natural. Its unavoidable. Its absurd to believe or attempt to rid ourselves of all corruption. Its like trying to get rid of Rats
Not going to Happen. So ..you adapt Work with it . At time ...strangely enough ...its actually of use.
That and perfection
WE are not going to get rid of corruption & Greed. Its embedded in the Human as much as anything.
We are not going to be perfect. ....another absurdity. Itll never happen.
But...we need to aim for that 80/20.
If we deviate slightly ..its not a game changer. Its not even a problem
But ...we must come to grips w/ a society that is simply getting it So profoundly wrong..so often.
..I am forever an optimist and a firm believer in the occasional and well timed miracle.
IN reality, aside from the miscalculation and prevention of nuclear war between states, and failing to prevent proliferation of WMD to rogue states , terrorists/ resistance / extremist -organizations
The Game really is Domestic.
Values. Education. Economy. Deficit. Energy. Sustainability. etc etc.
No matter how prescient our Foreign Policy/ security strategy- if we dont get our house in order , we will w/ 100 % certainty - go the way of every other
Empire that became bloated with corruption, Greed, ... Hubris.
OUr rise was mostly an Historical anomaly. An accident.
Our Decline will be anything but.
So much of what defines our polity is the tension between a missionary zeal to spread our values, our idea of ourselves as exceptional, and our
enterprising spirit which has always pushed us into Global markets, and a bizarre isolationism, and a reluctance to Empire.
We invade Iraq- twice. We occupy Iraq for more than a decade. The entire World's economy is dependent upon stable oil supplies,
but after all the Hundreds of Billions spent - lives wasted , what Truly do we have to show for it except
an empowered Iran, a chimera of Democracy in Iraq, ..a far less stable Middle E. ?
Not to mention, A middle E. not one inch closer to resolving the single most iimportant issue. -Israel.
Recall the Report on Arab Development ..i believe that was the name ..circa 2003
It stated three primary things were preventing the Arab world from Advancing Economically.
Women's role in society
Education
Authoritarianism
For the money we spent on misguided policies in the ME- we could have handed these things to the Arab world on a platter.
And so it goes.
I have Faith
& I am working at solutions.
Possibly dueling windmills w/ a wooden sword ..but - it is what it is.
